Establishment and verification of the Nomogram model for the risk of hepatic capsule tuberculosis in patients with tuberculous peritonitis

Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of hepatic capsule tuberculosis in patients with tuber-culous peritonitis (TBP), so as to determine reasonable prevention and treatment measures and reduce the inci-dence of hepatic capsule tuberculosis.Methods: A total of 202 patients with TBP complicated with hepatic hepat-ic tuberculosis admitted to Heilongjiang Institute of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control from January 2018 to January 2023 were taken as the study group, while 202 patients with TBP were matched 1∶1 according to gender, age and body mass index as the control group.The general data, laboratory indicators and ultrasonic mani-festations of the two groups were compared, variables were screened by Lasso regression, and a logistic regres-sion model was established based on the selected variables.The Nomogram model was drawn, and the distinction ability and accuracy of Nomogram model were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve.Results: There were significant differences in the course of desease, aspartate aminotransferase(AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), total bilirubin (TBIL), total protein (TP), albumin (ALB), adenosine deaminase (ADA), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), ascites, echo characteristics in ascites, lamina-like thickening of peritoneum, and thickening and adhesion of intestinal wall be-tween the two groups (all P< 0.05).Lasso-logistic regression equation showed that CA125, ADA, AST/ALT, ascites, lamina-like thickening of peritoneum, and thickening and adhesion of intestinal wall were the influencing factors of TBP complicated with hepatic capsule tuberculosis(P< 0.05).Based on the Lasso-logis-tic regression equation, the Nomogram model of TBP complicated with hepatic capsule tuberculosis was con-structed.The prediction sensitivity and specificity were 82.67% and 74.25%, respectively, and there was a good correlation between the prediction results of this model and the actual observation results.Conclusion: CA125, ADA, AST/ALT, ascites, lamina-like thickening of peritoneum, and thickening and adhesion of intestinal wall are the influencing factors of hepatic capsule tuberculosis in TBP patients.The Nomograph model built based on the above influences has good predictive efficacy.