Study on the construction of lung cancer prediction model in China based on ARIMA and NNAR models

Objective: To provide scientific references for the prevention and control strategies of lung cancer in China by predicting the development trend of lung cancer in China from 2020 to 2024 based on the epidemiological data of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods: The annual estimated percentage change (EAPC) was used to analyze the trend of incidence (gender), mortality (gender) and other indexes of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.The prediction accuracies of ARIMA model and NNAR model were compared to predict the epidemic trend of lung cancer in China from 2020 to 2024.Results: The incidence (gender), mortality (gender) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of lung cancer in China increased during the time from 1990 to 2019.The incidence increased from 21.72/100, 000 to 58.56/100, 000 (EAPC 3.72%, P＜ 0.001); the mortality increased from 21.65/100, 000 to 53.23/100, 000 (EAPC 3.37%, P＜ 0.001); the DALY rate increased from 588.07/100, 000 to 1, 204.25/100, 000 (EAPC 2.67%, P＜ 0.001).The predicted values of ARIMA and NNAR were basically consistent with the actual values.The MAPE, MAE and RMSE values of ARIMA model were smaller, and the prediction accuracy was higher.The ARIMA model was used to forecast the incidence, the mortality and the DALY rate.The predictive incidence rates were 57.67/100, 000, 59.06/100, 000, 60.44/100, 000, 61.83/100, 000 and 63.22/100, 000 from 2020 to 2024, respectively; the predictive mortality rates were 53.26/100, 000, 54.51/100, 000, 55.76/100, 000, 57.02/100, 000 and 58.27/100, 000, respectively and the predictive DALY rates were 1, 191.98/100, 000, 1, 211.72/100, 000, 1, 231.36/100, 000, 1, 250.94/100, 000 and 1, 270.48/100, 000, respectively.Conclusion: The incidence and death rate of lung cancer in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2024.The ARIMA model has good accuracy and predictive performance in predicting the epidemic characteristics of lung cancer in China, which is of guiding significance for the formulation of prevention and control strategies of lung cancer.