1990—2023年中国肝癌病因谱变迁及非酒精性脂肪性肝炎相关肝癌负担的性别差异与趋势

Changes in the etiological spectrum of liver cancer and sex differences in trends of NASH-related liver cancer burden in China, 1990-2023

  • 摘要: 目的:分析1990—2023年中国肝癌病因谱的变迁趋势,聚焦非酒精性脂肪性肝炎(non-alcoholic steatohepatitis,NASH)相关肝癌的疾病负担、性别差异及时间变化特征。方法:基于全球疾病负担研究(global burden of disease study,GBD)2023数据库,提取1990—2023年中国NASH相关肝癌的发病、患病、死亡及伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)等疾病负担指标。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析年龄标准化率(age-standardized rate,ASR)的时间趋势;计算1990年与2023年肝癌主要病因乙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis B virus,HBV)、丙型肝炎病毒(hepatitis C virus,HCV)、酒精、NASH及其他的构成比并进行对比。结果:与1990年相比,2023年中国NASH相关肝癌的发病数、患病数、死亡数和DALY数均显著增加。ASR方面,女性发病率、死亡率、DALY率分别下降32.7%、37.0%和46.5%,男性患病率上升(P<0.05),而发病率与死亡率的变化无统计学意义(P>0.05)。1990—2023年间,各项ASR呈先降后升趋势:2000—2005年加速下降,2005年降至谷底后逐步回升,2015年后男性明显加速上升。2023年DALY负担集中于50~69岁人群。病因构成中,HBV相关肝癌构成比从65.8%降至64.1%,NASH相关肝癌占比从4.9%升至6.1%。Das Gupta分解显示,1990—2023年死亡数净增4 838.01例,人口增长与人口老龄化分别贡献43.84%和93.29%,流行病学变化贡献-37.13%。多元线性回归分析显示代谢危险因素可解释死亡率年度变化的40.27%(调整R2=0.402 7,P<0.001),其中高空腹血糖是独立显著的驱动因素(β=38.14,P<0.001)。广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)交互效应检验显示,年龄与时期交互项具有统计学意义(P<0.001)。结论:1990—2023年中国NASH相关肝癌的年龄标准化负担总体呈先降后升趋势,女性负担显著减轻,男性相对稳定;NASH是男性中唯一未显著下降的病因,其在肝癌病因构成中的占比持续上升。绝对负担的增加主要由人口增长与老龄化驱动,代谢危险因素尤其是糖代谢紊乱已成为抵消防控红利、推动负担回升的重要驱动因素,亟须针对男性、中老年人群及代谢危险因素制定综合防控策略。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze the changing trends in the etiological spectrum of liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2023, and focus on the disease burden, sex differences and temporal variation characteristics of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH)-related liver cancer. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD) 2023 database for NASH-related liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2023, including incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life year(DALY). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to examine temporal trends in age-standardized rate(ASR). The composition ratios of the major etiologies of liver cancer in 1990 and 2023-hepatitis B virus(HBV), hepatitis C virus(HCV), alcohol, NASH and others were calculated and compared. Results: Compared with 1990, the incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths and DALY of NASH-related liver cancer in China increased significantly in 2023. In terms of ASR, the female incidence, mortality and DALY rates decreased by 32.7%, 37.0% and 46.5%, respectively. The prevalence increased in males(P<0.05), whereas the changes in incidence and mortality rates were not statistically significant(P>0.05). From 1990 to 2023, all ASR exhibited a decline-first-then-rise pattern: an accelerated decline from 2000 to 2005, reaching a nadir in 2005, followed by a gradual increase, with a marked acceleration in males after 2015. In 2023, the DALY burden was concentrated in the 50-69 age group. In terms of etiological composition, the proportion of HBV-related liver cancer decreased from 65.8% to 64.1%, while that of NASH-related liver cancer increased from 4.9% to 6.1%. The Das Gupta decomposition revealed that the cumulative net increase in the number of deaths was 4,838.01 from 1990 to 2023. Population growth and population ageing contributed 43.84% and 93.29%, respectively, while epidemiological changes contributed-37.13%. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that metabolic risk factors explained 40.27% of the annual variation in mortality(adjusted R2 =0.4027, P<0.001), with high fasting plasma glucose being an independent and significant driver(β =38.14, P<0.001). The interaction test of generalized additive model(GAM) revealed that the age-period interaction term was statistically significant(P<0.001). Conclusion: Overall, the age-standardized burden of NASH-related liver cancer in China initially decreased and then increased from 1990 to 2023, with a significant reduction in females but relative stability in males. NASH was the only etiology without a significant decline in males, and its proportion in the etiological composition of liver cancer continued to rise. The increase in absolute burden is mainly driven by population growth and aging, while metabolic risk factors, especially dysglycemia, have become important drivers that offset previous prevention gains and contribute to the rebound in burden, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive prevention and control strategies targeting males, middle-aged and older populations, and metabolic risk factors.

     

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