我国原发性肝癌发病与死亡的时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of primary liver cancer incidence and mortality in China

  • 摘要: 目的:描述我国原发性肝癌(primary liver cancer,PLC)发病与死亡的时空分布特征,为肝癌防控提供流行病学依据。方法:基于2004—2019年《中国肿瘤登记年报》数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC),利用空间自相关方法揭示空间分布特征,并通过贝叶斯空间模型估计各省相对危险度(relative risk,RR)。结果:2004—2019年,全国PLC年龄标准化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)总体平稳,2011年后呈下降趋势(APC=-2.09%),年龄标准化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)在2011年后亦呈下降趋势(APC=-2.31%)。中南区及福建为高发区域,广西(RR=1.80)、海南(RR=1.67)、福建(RR=1.42)发病风险最高。城乡发病与死亡差距缩小,农村与城市的发病率比值由1.8降至1.1。PLC发病率与死亡率均呈显著正空间自相关(均P<0.05)。结论:中国PLC发病与死亡空间分布呈以中南区为核心、福建为延伸的高发聚集格局,城乡差距趋于缩小;中南区PLC标化发病和死亡率接近,提示应重点加强肝癌早期预防。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To describe the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer(PLC) in China and provide epidemiological evidence for the prevention and control of this malignancy. Methods: Based on data from the China Cancer Registry Annual Report from 2004 to 2019, the Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC). The spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to reveal the spatial distribution patterns. A Bayesian spatial model was applied to estimate the relative risk(RR) for each province. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) of PLC in China remained generally stable between 2004 and 2019. It showed a downward trend after 2011(APC=-2.09%), and the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR) also showed a downward trend after 2011(APC=-2.31%). The CentralSouth region and Fujian Province were identified as high-incidence areas, with Guangxi(RR=1.80), Hainan(RR=1.67), and Fujian(RR=1.42) showing the highest risks. The urban-rural gap in PLC incidence and mortality narrowed, with the rural-to-urban ratio of PLC incidence decreasing from 1.8 to 1.1. Both PLC incidence and mortality rates exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation(P<0.05). Conclusion: The spatial distribution of PLC incidence and mortality in China exhibits a high-incidence clustering pattern centered on the Central-South region and extending to Fujian, with the urban-rural gap tending to narrow. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of PLC in the Central-South region are similar, suggesting that early prevention of PLC should be prioritized in this region.

     

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