3种心血管风险评估模型识别颈动脉易损斑块的效能比较

Comparison of the performance of three cardiovascular risk assessment models in identifying vulnerable carotid plaques

  • 摘要: 目的:评估3种心血管风险评估模型作为颈动脉易损斑块初筛工具的适用性。方法:采用横断面设计,选取2019—2023年在广西壮族自治区柳州市调查的986例当地居民作为研究对象。计算中国动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病风险预测(prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China,China-PAR)模型、Framingham风险评分(Framingham risk score,FRS)模型以及世界卫生组织心血管疾病风险图表(WHO实验室模型)的10年心血管疾病风险值。以受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,AUC)、Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验、校准图、灵敏度、特异度和阳性预测值评估模型效能,并通过约登指数最大化探索各模型的最佳截断值。结果:3种模型对颈动脉易损斑块的区分能力良好(AUC:0.71~0.72),但校准度均较差(P<0.001)。模型原始阈值下FRS模型具有高灵敏度(89.6%)、低特异度(32.2%)及低阳性预测值(27.6%),其余模型则表现为低灵敏度(WHO实验室模型:39.8%,China-PAR模型:53.4%)、高特异度(WHO实验室模型:84.2%,China-PAR模型:72.5%)及高阳性预测值(WHO实验室模型:42.1%,China-PAR模型:35.9%)。优化阈值后,4.5%阈值下的WHO实验室模型的灵敏度高于FRS模型(74.2%vs. 67.0%,P=0.003)和China-PAR模型(74.2%vs. 67.9%,P=0.018),特异度低于China-PAR模型(61.7%vs. 65.2%,P=0.006)和FRS模型(61.7%vs. 66.5%,P<0.001),阳性预测值(35.9%)与ChinaPAR模型(36.1%)及FRS模型(36.6%)比较,差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。结论:3种模型对颈动脉易损斑块均具有良好的区分能力,但直接套用原始开发阈值初筛时难以平衡漏诊与误诊。优化阈值后,WHO实验室模型综合表现最佳。提示广西地区基层医疗机构可初步采用WHO实验室模型优化后的风险阈值(4.5%)进行初筛,对高危者进一步行颈动脉超声检查。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the applicability of three cardiovascular risk assessment models as primary screening tools for vulnerable carotid plaques. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, we enrolled 986 local residents from Liuzhou, Guangxi surveyed between 2019 and 2023 as participants. The 10-year cardiovascular disease risk values were calculated using the assessment models of prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China(China-PAR), Framingham risk score(FRS), and World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts(WHO laboratory-based model). The model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration plots, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value, and the optimal cut-offs for each model were explored by maximizing the Youden's index. Results: The 3 models exhibited good discriminatory ability for vulnerable carotid plaques(AUC: 0.71-0.72), but showed poor calibration(P<0.001). At the original cut-offs of each model, the FRS showed high sensitivity(89.6%), low specificity(32.2%) and low positive predictive value(27.6%). The other two models showed low sensitivity(WHO laboratory-based model: 39.8%; China-PAR model: 53.4%), high specificity(WHO laboratory-based model: 84.2%; China-PAR model: 72.5%), and high positive predictive value(WHO laboratory-based model: 42.1%; China-PAR model: 35.9%). After cut-off optimization, the WHO laboratory-based model at the optimal cut-off of 4.5% exhibited a higher sensitivity than the FRS model(74.2% vs. 67.0%, P=0.003) and the China-PAR model(74.2% vs. 67.9%, P=0.018), and exhibited a lower specificity than the China-PAR model(61.7% vs. 65.2%, P=0.006) and the FRS model(61.7% vs. 66.5%, P<0.001). No statistically significant differences in positive predictive value were observed between the WHO laboratory-based model(35.9%) and either the China-PAR model(36.1%) or the FRS model(36.6%)(P>0.05). Conclusion: The 3 models exhibit satisfactory discriminatory performance in identifying vulnerable carotid plaques. However, when directly applying the original development cut-offs for initial screening, it is difficult to balance missed diagnoses and misdiagnoses. After cut-off optimization, the WHO laboratory-based model achieves the best overall performance. These conclusions suggest that primary medical institutions in Guangxi region can initially use the cut-off risk(4.5%) optimized by the WHO laboratory-based model for initial screening and conduct further carotid ultrasonography for high-risk individuals.

     

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