基于武汉市急救数据的环境温度与自杀方式致死性选择的关联研究

Association between ambient temperature and the lethality of suicide methods: a study based on emergency medical service data from Wuhan

  • 摘要: 目的:探讨环境温度与自杀方式致死性选择的关联,并评估年龄、性别、季节对该关联的效应修饰作用。方法:回顾性分析2023年6月至2025年5月武汉市急救中心120调度系统的自杀相关急救记录,匹配同期气象资料。依据病例致死率将自杀方式分为高致死性与低致死性两类,采用二元logistic回归评估日均温度与高致死性方式选择的关联,并校正年龄与性别;亚组按年龄、性别、季节分层,多重比较以错误发现率(false discovery rate,FDR)校正,并通过10项敏感性分析评估稳健性。结果:共纳入研究1 160例,其中高致死性方式287例(24.7%)。日均温度每升高1℃,选择高致死性方式的比值降低2.2%(OR=0.978,95%CI:0.964~0.993,P=0.004)。FDR校正后,30~59岁组与秋季的温度效应有统计学意义,但经似然比交互作用检验未发现显著效应修饰(均P>0.15)。方式特异性分析中,锐器伤(OR=1.021)与高坠(OR=0.969)经FDR校正达显著,各方式效应方向与致死性分类框架一致。10项敏感性分析结果一致,OR稳定在0.976~0.985。结论:环境温度与自杀方式致死性选择呈负向关联,温度升高伴随高致死性自杀方式选择比例下降,结果在多种敏感性分析中保持稳健。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To investigate the association between ambient temperature and the lethality of suicide methods, and to evaluate the potential effect modification by age, sex and season. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on suicide-related emergency records from the 120 dispatch system of Wuhan Emergency Medical Center between June 2023 and May 2025, which were matched with concurrent meteorological data. The suicide methods were classified as high-lethality and low-lethality based on case fatality rate. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the association between daily mean ambient temperature and the high-lethality suicide methods, with adjustment for age and sex. Subgroup analyses were stratified by age, sex and season. Multiple comparisons were corrected using false discovery rate(FDR), and the robustness was evaluated through 10 sensitivity analyses. Results: A total of 1,160 individuals were included in this study, among whom 287 individuals(24.7%) involved the high-lethality suicide methods. Each 1 °C increase in daily mean ambient temperature was associated with a 2.2% reduction in the odds of selecting a high-lethality suicide method(OR=0.978, 95% CI: 0.964-0.993, P=0.004). After FDR correction, the temperature effects in the 30-59 age group and in autumn reached statistical significance; however, likelihood ratio tests for interactions revealed no significant effect modification(P>0.15). In the method-specific analyses, sharp instrument injuries(OR=1.021) and falls from height(OR=0.969) remained significant after FDR correction, and the direction of effects across methods was consistent with the lethality classification framework. The results were consistent across the 10 sensitivity analyses, with ORs remaining stable in the range of 0.976-0.985. Conclusion: Ambient temperature is negatively associated with the lethality of suicide methods, and rising temperatures are accompanied by a decline in the proportion of the high-lethality suicide methods. These results remain robust across multiple sensitivity analyses.

     

/

返回文章
返回