基于meta分析构建成人ECMO患者医院感染风险预测模型及验证

Construction and validation of a meta-analysis-based risk prediction model for nosocomial infections in adult patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

  • 摘要: 目的: 基于meta分析构建适用于成人体外膜肺氧合(ECMO)辅助治疗患者医院感染风险的预测模型,为减少膜肺氧合辅助治疗患者医院感染的发生提供评估工具。方法: 系统检索各数据库自建库至2025年6月20日成人ECMO患者医院感染发生危险因素的相关文献,选择纽卡斯尔—渥太华量表(NOS)对纳入文献进行质量评价,采用RevMan 5.4进行meta分析,采用各危险因素的综合风险值后构建logistic回归风险预测模型;为以2023年1月至2024年8月在某三级甲等医院行ECMO治疗的患者为模型验证组,采用受试者工作特征曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)检验、校准曲线、决策曲线对所构建的模型进行评价。结果: 共纳入26篇文献,涉及3 872例患者,成人ECMO患者医院感染发生率为34.19%。构建logistic回归模型:Logit (P)=ɑ-0.02×年龄+0.09×体质量指数+0.08×ECMO使用时长+0.27×机械通气时间+0.02×中心静脉导管留置时间+2.06×SOFA评分+1.07×CRRT的使用+1.78×IABP的使用,模型的灵敏度及特异度分别为80.0%、68.9%,ROC曲线下面积为0.777(95%CI:0.659~0.894),说明模型区分度良好;H-L检验结果(χ2=8.325,P=0.402),校准曲线分析结果显示,预测模型与实际模型预测误差为0.013,说明模型的准确性及一致性较高;决策曲线净获益率结果为正,说明临床在使用该模型时能够带来较好的获益。结论: 基于meta分析构建成人ECMO患者医院感染风险预测模型具有良好的预测效能,可作为早期预测成人ECMO患者医院感染危险人群的工具。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To construct a meta-analysis-based risk prediction model for nosocomial infections in adult patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), thereby providing an assessment tool to evaluate and reduce the risk of nosocomial infections in this population. Methods: Databases were systematically searched from inception to June 20, 2025, for relevant literature on risk factors associated with nosocomial infections in adult ECMO patients. The quality of included studies was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta-analysis was performed with Review Manager 5.4, and integrated risk values of identified factors were used to construct a logistic regression prediction model. Patients who underwent ECMO treatment in a tertiary care hospital from January 2023 to August 2024 were enrolled as the model validation cohort. The model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Twenty-six literatures, involving 3,872 patients were included, and the overall incidence of nosocomial infections in adult ECMO patients was 34.19%. The logistic regression model was constructed as follows: Logit (P)=ɑ-0.02×age+0.09×BMI+0.08×duration of ECMO support+ 0.27×duration of mechanical ventilation+0.02×duration of central venous catheterization+2.06×SOFA score+ 1.07×CRRT use+1.78×IABP use. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 80.0% and 68.9%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.777 (95% CI: 0.659-0.894), indicating good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed satisfactory model calibration (χ2=8.325, P=0.402). Calibration curve analysis revealed a prediction error between the predictive model and the actual observations was 0.013, indicating high accuracy and consistency. DCA demonstrated a positive net benefit, suggesting favorable clinical utility. Conclusion: The meta-analysis-based risk prediction model for nosocomial infections in adult ECMO patients demonstrates strong predictive performance. It serves as a useful tool for early identification of patients at high risk for nosocomial infections.

     

/

返回文章
返回