降钙素原及C反应蛋白动态变化预测脓毒症相关急性肾损伤短期预后的临床价值

Clinical value of dynamic changes of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in predicting the short-term outcome of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

  • 摘要: 目的: 探讨降钙素原(PCT)及C反应蛋白(CRP)动态变化预测脓毒症相关急性肾损伤(SA-AKI)短期预后的临床价值。方法: 回顾2021年9月至2022年12月广西医科大学第一附属医院收治的305例SA-AKI患者临床资料,根据28 d转归情况分为死亡组和存活组;存活患者根据肾功能情况分为未恢复组和恢复组,观察不同时间PCT、CRP值,通过相关性分析、回归分析、ROC及净重新分类指数(NRI)分析PCT及CRP动态变化与SA-AKI患者短期不良预后的相关性。结果: 共纳入305例SAAKI患者,无失访,死亡115例(37.7%),死亡组第1周PCT和CRP水平,第2、第3~第4周血清肌酐(Scr)、PCT及CRP水平高于存活组,而基线PCT和CRP水平低于存活组;存活的190例患者肾功能未恢复55例(28.9%),未恢复组第2、第3~第4周的Scr、PCT及CRP水平高于恢复组(均P<0.05)。Spearman相关性分析显示,确诊时AKI分期与基线CRP水平呈正相关关系(r=0.150,P=0.044),存活组住院时间与各时间点的PCT水平、PCT下降率、基线及第1周CRP水平呈正相关关系(r=0.775、0.575、0.433、0.196、0.557、0.308、0.257,P<0.05)。等比例Cox回归分析显示,PCT及CRP下降率每升高1%,死亡风险较前分别下降3.9%、23.9%(P<0.05),含时依协变量Cox回归分析显示,高SCR、PCT及CRP水平组死亡风险分别是低水平组的1.518、2.448、2.020倍(P<0.001);logistic回归分析显示,PCT及CRP下降率每升高1%,肾功能未恢复的风险较前分别下降62.0%、25.3%(P<0.05)。受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析显示,PCT下降率、CRP下降率及二者联合判断死亡的AUC分别为0.919、0.870、0.922,判断肾功能未恢复的AUC分别为0.691、0.688、0.706(P<0.05);NRI分析显示,相对于CRP下降率二者联合预测死亡和肾功能未恢复NRI值分别为131.349%(95%CI:112.317~150.381)和40.208%(95%CI:13.413~67.003)。结论: PCT及CRP水平与SA-AKI患者死亡及肾脏预后密切相关,PCT及CRP动态变化是SA-AKI患者短期不良预后的重要影响因素,二者联合可提高预测效能。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To explore the clinical value of the dynamic changes of procalcitonin(PCT) and Creactive protein(CRP) in predicting the short-term outcome of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury(SA-AKI). Methods: The clinical data of 305 patients with SA-AKI admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from September 2021 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the 28-day transition, patients were divided into death group and survival group; patients who survived were divided into non-recovery group and recovery group according to renal function. PCT and CRP values at different times were observed, and the correlation analysis, regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis, and net reclassification improvement(NRI) analysis were used to explore the correlation between the dynamic changes of PCT and CRP and short-term adverse prognosis in patients with SA-AKI. Results: A total of 305 patients with SA-AKI were included with no loss to follow-up. Among the patients, 115(37.7%) died. In the death group, PCT and CRP levels in the first week, as well as serum creatinine(Scr), the levels of PCT, and CRP in week 2 and weeks 3-4, were higher than those in the survival group, while baseline levels of PCT and CRP were lower than those in the survival group. Among the 190 surviving patients, 55(28.9%) had no renal function recovery. In the non-recovery group, the levels of Scr, PCT, and CRP in week 2 and and weeks 3-4 were significantly higher than those in the recovery group(all P<0.05). Spearman correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between AKI staging at admission and baseline CRP level(r=0.150, P=0.044), and survival group hospitalization time was positively correlated with PCT levels at each time point, PCT decline rate, baseline CRP level and week 1 CRP level(r=0.775, 0.575, 0.433, 0.196, 0.557, 0.308, 0.257; all P<0.05). The proportional Cox regression analysis showed that for every 1% increase in PCT and CRP reduction rates, the mortality rate decreased by 3.9% and 23.9% respectively(P<0.05). The time-adjusted Cox regression analysis indicated that the mortality rates in high-SCR, PCT, and CRP groups were 1.518, 2.448, and 2.020 times higher than those in the low-SCR group, respectively(P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that for every 1% increase in PCT and CRP reduction rates, the risk of renal function non-recovery decreased by 62.0% and 25.3% respectively(P<0.05). The ROC curve showed that the areas under the curve(AUC) of PCT, CRP decline rates and their combination for predicting death were 0.919, 0.870 and 0.922, respectively; the AUC for predicting renal function nonrecovery was 0.691, 0.688 and 0.706, respectively(P<0.05). The NRI analysis revealed that, compared with the CRP reduction rate, the NRI values of the combination of PCT and CRP reduction rates for predicting death and renal function non-recovery were 131.349%(95% CI: 112.317-150.381) and 40.208%(95% CI: 13.413-67.003), respectively. Conclusion: PCT and CRP levels are closely related to the death and renal prognosis of SA-AKI patients. Dynamic changes of PCT and CRP are important factors affecting the short-term adverse prognosis of SAAKI patients, and the combination of the two can improve the prediction efficiency.

     

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