Abstract:
Objective:To establish a Nomogram model for predicting postpartum stress urinary incontinence(SUI) based on ultrasound indicators and validate it.
Methods:A total of 413 women who gave birth in Dazhou Integrated TCM&Western Medicine Hospital and underwent pelvic floor ultrasonography 3 months after delivery from January 2021 to January 2023 were selected for the study and divided into model group with 289 cases and validation group with 124 cases in a 7:3 ratio.The general data of the patients were collected, and two-dimensional and three-dimensional pelvic floor ultrasound examination and real-time shear wave elastography of the puborectalis muscles were performed.According to the presence or absence of postpartum SUI, the model group of parturients was divided into two groups.The general data and ultrasound indicators of the two groups were compared, and potential factors were screened using LASSO regression.Independent influencing factors were evaluated using logistic regression, and the Nomogram model was established using R language for validation.
Results:In the model group of 289 patients, there were a total of 48 cases (16.61%).There were significant differences in pre-pregnancy BMI, parity, delivery mode, perineal laceration, constipation, newborn birth weight, Ry, Vy, Rα, Vα, Vβ, BND, URA, bladder neck funnel, LHA1, LHA2, E1, E2 and△E between the SUI group and the non-SUI group (
P<0.05).The results of multiple logistic regression analysis based on LASSO regression showed that pre-pregnancy BMI, Ry, Vy, BND, URA, bladder neck funnel, LHA1 and△E were independent influencing factors of postpartum SUI.The ROC analysis results of the Nomogram model showed that the AUC of the Nomogram model in the model group predicting the occurrence of postpartum SUI was 0.951 (95%
CI:0.924-0.977).The AUC of the verification group was 0.936 (95%
CI:0.907-0.964).The Bootstrap method was used for repeated sampling for 1, 000 times, and the verification group was used for verification.The calibration curve results showed that the model curve was basically fitted to the diagonal line of the ideal model.The results of decision curve analysis in the model group showed that when the prediction probability threshold was 0.10-0.90, the net benefit of the model in predicting postpartum SUI was the highest.
Conclusion:The occurrence of postpartum SUI is affected by BMI, Ry, Vy and other factors.The Nomogram model is expected to be used to predict postpartum SUI.