Abstract:
Objective: To analyze the risk factors of diabetes mellitus type 2(T2DM) combined with hypertension and construct a Nomogram prediction model.
Methods: A total of 742 T2DM patients who underwent physical examination in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from 2010 to 2015, and 738T2DM patients with baseline data from the 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were selected.They were divided into training(70.3%, n=1, 040) and validation(29.7%, n=440) sets by using simple random sampling. Based on the presence of hypertension, patients were classified into the T2DM with hypertension group(combined hypertension group) and the T2DM group. The logistic regression model was employed to screen the risk factors of T2DM with hypertension, and the Nomogram prediction model was constructed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.
Results: Age(
OR=1.058, 95%
CI:1.040-1.077), educational level(
OR=1.484, 95%
CI:1.033-2.132), body mass index(
OR=1.089, 95%
CI:1.012-1.171), waist circumference(
OR=1.057, 95%
CI:1.009-1.107), glycated hemoglobin(
OR=1.195, 95%
CI:1.045-1.367), and creatinine(
OR=1.010, 95%
CI:1.001-1.019) were independent risk factors for T2DM combined with hypertension(
P<0.05). The AUC for the training and validation sets were 0.721(95%
CI:0.689-0.753) and 0.784(95%
CI:0.739-0.828), respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated that the model had a good fit(
P=0.518,
P=0.644).
Conclusion: Age, education level, body mass index, waist circumference, glycated hemoglobin, and creatinine are independent risk factors for T2DM combined with hypertension. The risk prediction model based on these factors contributes to the early identification of highrisk population for T2DM combined with hypertension and guides the formulation of intervention measures.