2型糖尿病合并高血压列线图预测模型构建

Establishment of a Nomogram prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 with hypertension

  • 摘要: 目的:分析2型糖尿病(T2DM)合并高血压危险因素,并构建列线图(Nomogram)预测模型。方法:选择2010—2015年到广西医科大学第一附属医院进行体检的742例T2DM患者和2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查基线数据的738例T2DM患者。采用简单随机抽样的方法,分为训练集和验证集,其中训练集1 040例(70.3%),验证集440例(29.7%)。根据是否患有高血压,分成T2DM合并高血压组(合并高血压组)和T2DM组,采用Logistic回归模型筛选T2DM合并高血压的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型,应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)和校准曲线评估模型的区分度和校准度。结果:年龄(OR=1.058,95%CI:1.040~1.077)、文化程度(OR=1.484,95%CI:1.033~2.132)、体质量指数(OR=1.089,95%CI:1.012~1.171)、腰围(OR=1.057,95%CI:1.009~1.107)、糖化血红蛋白(OR=1.195,95%CI:1.045~1.367)、肌酐(OR=1.010,95%CI:1.001~1.019)是T2DM合并高血压的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。训练集和验证集的AUC分别为0.721(95%CI:0.689~0.753),0.784(95%CI:0.739~0.828);Hosmer-Lemeshow检验表明,模型拟合优度良好(P=0.518,P=0.644)。结论:年龄、文化程度、身体质量指数、腰围、糖化血红蛋白、肌酐为T2DM合并高血压的独立危险因素,基于此构建的风险预测模型有助于早期识别T2DM合并高血压的高危人群并指导制定干预措施。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze the risk factors of diabetes mellitus type 2(T2DM) combined with hypertension and construct a Nomogram prediction model. Methods: A total of 742 T2DM patients who underwent physical examination in the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from 2010 to 2015, and 738T2DM patients with baseline data from the 2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were selected.They were divided into training(70.3%, n=1, 040) and validation(29.7%, n=440) sets by using simple random sampling. Based on the presence of hypertension, patients were classified into the T2DM with hypertension group(combined hypertension group) and the T2DM group. The logistic regression model was employed to screen the risk factors of T2DM with hypertension, and the Nomogram prediction model was constructed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.Results: Age(OR=1.058, 95% CI:1.040-1.077), educational level(OR=1.484, 95% CI:1.033-2.132), body mass index(OR=1.089, 95% CI:1.012-1.171), waist circumference(OR=1.057, 95% CI:1.009-1.107), glycated hemoglobin(OR=1.195, 95% CI:1.045-1.367), and creatinine(OR=1.010, 95% CI:1.001-1.019) were independent risk factors for T2DM combined with hypertension(P<0.05). The AUC for the training and validation sets were 0.721(95% CI:0.689-0.753) and 0.784(95% CI:0.739-0.828), respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated that the model had a good fit(P=0.518, P=0.644). Conclusion: Age, education level, body mass index, waist circumference, glycated hemoglobin, and creatinine are independent risk factors for T2DM combined with hypertension. The risk prediction model based on these factors contributes to the early identification of highrisk population for T2DM combined with hypertension and guides the formulation of intervention measures.

     

/

返回文章
返回