基于Lasso-Nomogram构建食管癌术后感染的风险预测模型

Construction of a Lasso-Nomogram risk prediction model for postoperative infection of esophageal cancer

  • 摘要: 目的:探讨食管癌术后感染的影响因素,基于Lasso-Nomogram构建风险预测模型。方法:选取2020年3月至2023年1月空军军医大学唐都医院收治的548例食管癌患者,根据1∶1比例随机分为建模群(n=274)和验证群(n=274)。采用R软件中glmnet进行Lasso筛选术后肺部感染预测因素,进一步通过logistic回归分析预测因素与肺部感染的关联性,根据预测因素运用R语言构建Nomogram风险预测模型。将年龄、吸烟史、糖尿病、肺部基础疾病联合预测作为预测模型1,将年龄、吸烟史、糖尿病、肺部基础疾病、预后营养指数(PNI)、降钙素原(PCT)、白细胞介素-1β(IL-1β)、可溶性髓系细胞触发受体-1(sTREM-1)、CD4+/CD8+联合预测作为预测模型2,在验证群中分别构建预测模型1、预测模型2,并在验证群中通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)、净重新分类指数(NRI)、综合判别改善指数(IDI)进行外部验证。结果:Lasso筛选预测因素包括年龄、吸烟史、糖尿病、肺部基础疾病、PNI、PCT、IL-1β、sTREM-1、CD4+/CD8+。预测模型2预测术后肺部感染的AUC大于预测模型1,且预测效果明显改善(P<0.05)。结论:基于年龄、吸烟史、糖尿病、肺部基础疾病、PNI、PCT、IL-1β、sTREM-1、CD4+/CD8+等因素建立的Nomogram风险预测模型对术后肺部感染具有一定预测价值,有助于临床早期筛查高风险人群及制定针对性干预措施,以降低肺部感染发生风险。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of postoperative infection of esophageal cancer and establish a Lasso-Nomogram risk prediction model. Methods: A total of 548 patients with esophageal cancer admitted to Tangdu Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University from March 2020 to January 2023 were randomly divided into modeling group(n=274) and validation group(n=274) according to the ratio of 1:1. Glmnet in R software was used for Lasso screening of predictive factors for postoperative pulmonary infection, the correlation between predictive factors and pulmonary infection was further analyzed through logistic regression, and a Nomogram risk prediction model was constructed using R language based on predictive factors. The combined prediction of age, smoking history, diabetes, and underlying lung diseases was used as the prediction model 1,and the combined prediction of age, smoking history, diabetes, underlying lung diseases, prognostic nutritional index(PNI), procalcitonin(PCT), interleukin-1β(IL-1β), soluble myeloid cell triggering receptor-1(sTREM-1),and CD4+/CD8+ was used as the prediction model 2. Prediction model 1 and prediction model 2 were constructed,and the external validation was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve(AUC), net reclassification index(NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement(IDI) in the validation group.Results: Lasso screening predictors included age, smoking history, diabetes, underlying lung diseases, PNI, PCT,IL-1β, sTREM-1, and CD4+/CD8+; the AUC predicted by prediction model 2 for postoperative pulmonary infection was greater than that of prediction model 1, and the prediction effect was significantly improved(P<0.05). Conclusion: The Nomogram risk prediction model established based on age, smoking history, diabetes, underlying lung diseases, PNI, PCT, IL-1β, sTREM-1, CD4+/CD8+ and other factors has a certain value in predicting postoperative pulmonary infection. It is helpful for early clinical screening of high-risk population and development of targeted intervention measures to reduce the risk of pulmonary infection.

     

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