PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管发生相关因素及预测模型构建

Related factors and prediction model construction of catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU

  • 摘要: 目的:探讨儿科重症监护室(PICU)有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管发生相关因素,并构建预测模型。方法:选取北京大学第一医院2018年1月至2022年12月PICU患儿267例,均经桡动脉置管行有创动脉血压监测,根据有无导管堵管分为堵塞组与无堵塞组,收集两组临床资料,采用Lasso回归和logistic回归筛选PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管发生的相关因素,构建Nomogram预测模型,采用校准曲线和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线验证预测模型的预测价值。结果:单因素分析封管液、一次性穿刺成功、穿刺点渗血、导管留置时间、使用镇静镇痛药物、使用甘露醇、机械通气、凝血酶原时间(PT)、活化部分凝血活酶时间(APTT)是PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管的影响因素(均P<0.05);Lasso回归分析选出8个预测因素为一次性穿刺成功、穿刺点渗血、导管留置时间、使用镇静镇痛药物、使用甘露醇、机械通气、PT、APTT;logistic回归分析,一次性穿刺成功、穿刺点渗血、导管留置时间、使用镇静镇痛药物、使用甘露醇、机械通气、PT、APTT是PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管的相关影响因素(均P<0.05);据此构建Nomogram预测模型的一致性指数(C-index)为0.945,校准度为0.928,且拟合良好(χ2=8.741,P=0.593);ROC曲线分析,该模型预测PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管的AUC为0.926(95%CI:0.871~0.984)。结论:PICU有创动脉血压监测患儿导管堵管的相关因素包括一次性穿刺成功、穿刺点渗血、导管留置时间、使用镇静镇痛药物、使用甘露醇、机械通气、PT、APTT,由上述因素构建的预测模型具有可靠的预测价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To investigate the related factors of catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in pediatric intensive care unit(PICU), and to establish a prediction model. Methods: A total of 267 children in PICU in Peking University First Hospital from January 2018 to December 2022 were selected for invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring via radial artery catheterization. They were divided into blocked group and unblocked group according to whether or not the catheter was blocked. Clinical data of the two groups were collected. Lasso regression and logistic regression were used to screen the relevant factors of catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU. A Nomogram prediction model was constructed, and calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve were used to verify the prediction value of this model. Results: Tube sealing fluid by univariate analysis, one-time puncture success, puncture point bleeding, catheter retention time, use of sedative and analgesic drugs, use of mannitol, mechanical ventilation, prothrombin time(PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT) were the influential factors of catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU(all P<0.05).Eight predictors were selected by Lasso regression analysis, including one-time puncture success, puncture point bleeding, catheter retention time, use of sedative and analgesic drugs, use of mannitol, mechanical ventilation, PT and APTT. Logistic regression analysis showed that one-time puncture success, puncture point bleeding, catheter retention time, use of sedative and analgesic drugs, use of mannitol, mechanical ventilation, PT and APTT were the relevant influencing factors of catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU(all P<0.05). The concordance index(C-index) and calibration degree of the Nomogram prediction model were 0.945 and 0.928, and it fited well(χ2=8.741, P=0.593). ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the model for predicting catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU was 0.926(95% CI: 0.871-0.984). Conclusion: The factors related to catheter blockage in children with invasive arterial blood pressure monitoring in PICU include one-time puncture success, puncture point bleeding, catheter retention time, use of sedative and analgesic drugs, use of mannitol, mechanical ventilation, PT and APTT. The prediction model constructed by the above factors has reliable prediction value.

     

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