基于logistic-Nomogram 构建门诊急救急性肺损伤患者预后预测模型

Construction of a prognosis prediction model for outpatient emergency acute lung injury patients based on a logistic-Nomogram

  • 摘要: 目的:基于logistic-Nomogram 构建门诊急救急性肺损伤(ALI)患者预后预测模型。方法:选取2022 年3 月至2023 年1月航空总医院门诊部收治的308例ALI患者。分析ALI患者入院28 d预后情况,比较不同预后患者的临床资料,通过logistic分析筛查出的预测因素与预后不良的关联性,根据预测因素构建预后不良Nomogram 预测模型,并对Nomogram 预测模型进行外部验证。结果:死亡组年龄、呼气末正压、肺血管阻力指数(PVRI)、急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分系统Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)评分,血浆高迁移率族蛋白B1(HMGB1)、单核细胞趋化蛋白-1(MCP-1)、溶性髓系细胞表达的触发受体-1(sTREM-1)水平,血清miR-300、miR-221 表达水平及葡萄糖调节蛋白78(GRP78)、趋化因子受体4(CXCR4)、粒细胞集落刺激因子(G-CSF)水平均高于存活组,平均动脉压低于存活组(均P< 0.05)。年龄、PVRI、APACHEⅡ评分,血浆HMGB1、sTREM-1、MCP-1,血清miR-300、miR-221 表达水平及GRP78、CXCR4、G-CSF 水平均为ALI 患者预后不良的独立危险因素(均P< 0.05),基于以上因素构建ALI 患者预后不良的Nomogram 预测模型,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.947,灵敏度、特异度分别为91.45%、86.53%;校准曲线显示该预测模型预测结果与实际观测结果一致性较好。结论:基于年龄、APACHEⅡ评分、HMGB1、sTREM-1、MCP-1、miR-300、miR-221、PVRI、GRP78、CXCR4、G-CSF 因素构建的预测模型对于ALI 具有良好的预测效能。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To construct a prognosis prediction model for outpatient emergency acute lung injury(ALI)patients based on a logistic-Nomogram.Methods: A total of 308 ALI patients in Aviation General Hospital from March 2022 to January 2023 were selected.The prognosis of ALI patients admitted for 28 days was ana-lyzed, the clinical data of patients with different prognosis were compared, a Nomogram prediction model of poor prognosis was established based on the predictive factors by logistic analysis, and it was validated.Results: In the death group, age, positive end-expiratory pressure, pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRI), acute physi-ology and chronic health status score system Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ) score, plasma high mobility group protein B1(HMGB1), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), soluble myeloid cell expression trigger receptor-1(sTREM-1), expression levels of serum miR-300 and miR-221, glucose-regulatory protein 78 (GRP78), chemo-kine receptor 4(CXCR4)and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor(G-CSF)were higher than those in the surviv-al group and the mean arterial pressure was lower than that in the survival group (all P< 0.05).Age, PVRI, APACHEⅡscore, plasma HMGB1, sTREM-1, MCP-1, expression levels of serum miR-300 and miR-221 and se-rum levels of GRP78, CXCR4 and G-CSF were all independent risk factors for poor prognosis in ALI patients(all P< 0.05).Based on the above factors, a Nomogram prediction model for ALI patients with poor prognosis was constructed.The area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.947, and the sensi-tivity and specificity were 91.45% and 86.53%, re-spectively.The calibration curve showed that the pre-dicted results of the model were in good agreement with the actual observation results.Conclusion: The prediction model based on age, APACHEⅡscore, HMGB1, sTREM-1, MCP-1, miR-300, miR-221, PVRI, GRP78, CXCR4 and G-CSF has good prediction efficiency for ALI.

     

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