肝移植患儿术中获得性压力性损伤风险预测模型的构建

Construction of a risk prediction model for intraoperative acquired pressure injury in children undergoing liver transplantation

  • 摘要: 目的:分析肝移植患儿术中获得性压力性损伤(IAPI)的影响因素,并构建风险预测模型。方法:回顾性研究2018 年7 月至2021 年6 月上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院肝脏外科收治的1 161 例肝移植患儿的临床资料。根据是否发生IAPI,将患儿分为IAPI 组和无IAPI 组。采用单因素分析筛选肝移植患儿IAPI 的影响因素,并构建二分类logistic 回归风险预测模型;通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积和Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验来评估模型的预测效能和拟合度。结果:1 161 例肝移植患儿中,68 例发生IAPI(5.857%)。暴发性肝衰竭、遗传代谢性疾病、手术时间>8 h、术前血清总胆红素为肝移植患儿IAPI的危险因素(P<0.05),而术前护理措施中常规护理措施联合赛肤润及每2 h 体位微移动为保护因素(P<0.05)。构建logistic回归模型的Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验显示,χ2=3.079,P=0.929,ROC 曲线下面积为0.748,约登指数为0.366,灵敏度为0.838,特异度为0.538。结论:本研究构建的肝移植患儿IAPI 风险预测模型效果良好,临床上可根据预测结果对不同风险的患儿采取针对性的预防措施。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To analyze the influencing factors of intraoperative acquired pressure injury (IAPI) in children undergoing liver transplantation and construct a risk prediction model.Methods: The clinical data of 1, 161 children who underwent liver transplantation in the liver surgery department of Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University from July 2018 to June 2021 were retrospectively studied.According to whether IAPI occurred or not, the children were divided into IAPI group and non-IAPI group.Univariate analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of IAPI in children undergoing liver transplantation and a binary logistic regression risk prediction model was constructed.Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to verify the predictive value and goodness of fit of the model.Results: Of the 1, 161 children undergoing liver transplantation, 68 developed IAPI (5.857%).Explosivity hepatic failure, inherited metabolic disease, operation time> 8h and preoperative serum total bilirubin were the risk factors for IAPI in children undergoing liver transplantation (P< 0.05), while the routine nursing measures in preoperative care combined with sanyrene and micro-mobility every 2 hours were protective factors (P< 0.05).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test to construct logistic regression model showed that χ2=3.079, P=0.929, the area under the curve of ROC was 0.748, the Youden index was 0.366, the sensitivity was 0.838, and the specificity was 0.538.Conclusion: This risk prediction model for IAPI in children undergoing liver transplantation has good performance.Therefore, targeted preventive measures can be implemented for children at different risk levels based on the predicted results in clinical practice.

     

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