2004—2018年中国大陆伤寒和副伤寒疫情时空统计分析

Spatio-temporal statistical analysis of epidemic situation of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland from 2004 to 2018

  • 摘要: 目的:分析2004—2018年中国31个省、直辖市、自治区伤寒和副伤寒疫情变化趋势及时空分布情况,为伤寒和副伤寒防控提供依据。方法:基于2004—2018 年中国公共卫生科学数据中心平台报告的伤寒和副伤寒病例数据,进行描述并采用Joinpoint回归、空间自相关、空间扫描分析疫情的时空效应。结果:2004—2018年我国大陆伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,< 5岁儿童是发病主要人群且发病率呈现上升,2011—2018年度变化百分比(APC)为6.5%(P< 0.05)。2004—2018年伤寒和副伤寒发病率存在空间正相关(Moran's I 指数为0.087~0.389,Z> 1.960,P< 0.05)。时空扫描发现:聚集时间为2004—2006 年(LLR=29 380.06,RR=2.70,P< 0.001),季节为4—9 月;伤寒主要聚集在云南、广西、贵州(LLR=77 653.50,RR=4.571,P< 0.001);副伤寒主要聚集在广西、贵州、云南、浙江、江西、湖南(LLR=54 280.50,RR=3.455,P< 0.001)。结论:我国大陆伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,< 5岁儿童仍是发病主要人群,疫情存在明显的时间和空间效应,好发于夏季及我国南方地区。

     

    Abstract: Objective:To analyze the change trend and spatial distribution of typhoid/paratyphoid fever in 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide a basis for the prevention and control of typhoid/paratyphoid fever.Methods:Based on the typhoid and paratyphoid fever case data reported by the China Public Health Science Data Center platform from 2004 to 2018, the data were described and the spatio-temporal effect of the epidemic was analyzed by Joinpoint regression, spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning.Results:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland decreased year by year from 2004 to 2018.Children under 5 years old were the main population and the incidence rate increased.The annual percent change (APC) from 2011 to 2018 was 6.5% (P< 0.05).There was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever from 2004 to 2018(Moran's I index was 0.087-0.389, Z> 1.960, P< 0.05).Spatio-temporal scanning showed that the aggregation time was from 2004 to 2006(LLR=29, 380.06, RR=2.70, P< 0.001)and the season was from April to September, typhoid fever mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou(LLR=77, 653.50, RR=4.571, P< 0.001), and paratyphoid fever mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Hunan (LLR=54, 280.50, RR=3.455, P< 0.001).Conclusion:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland is decreasing year by year, and children under 5 years old are still the main population.The epidemic situation shows obvious temporal and spatial effect, and is prone to occur in summer and in southern China.

     

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