2005—2020年中国10~24岁人群自杀死亡率趋势:年龄—时期—队列模型分析

Trends in suicide mortality among people aged 10-24 years in China from 2005 to 2020: an age-period-cohort modeling analysis

  • 摘要: 目的:探究2005—2020年我国10~24岁人群自杀死亡变化趋势,为科学预防年轻群体自杀提供科学依据。方法:基于2005—2020年《中国卫生统计年鉴》10~24岁城乡自杀死亡率数据,采用年龄—时期—队列(APC)模型和内生因子法估计自杀死亡率的年龄、时期、队列效应。结果:中国10~24岁人群自杀死亡率近年来呈上升趋势。APC模型分析结果显示,10~24岁人群自杀死亡风险随年龄增大而增大,时期效应随时间变化波动,并从2015 年以来呈上升趋势,队列效应呈先下降后上升趋势。结论:中国年轻群体自杀问题近年来愈发严重,需采取更有效的干预措施,以防止年轻群体自杀死亡风险进一步增加。

     

    Abstract: Objective:To explore the trends of suicide mortality among people aged 10-24 years in China from 2005 to 2020, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention of suicide among young people.Methods:Based on the data of rural-urban suicide mortality rate among people aged 10-24 years in China Health Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2020 and China Statistical Yearbook of Health and Family Planning from 2013 to 2020, the age-period-cohort(APC)model and the intrinsic estimator method were used to estimate the age, period and cohort effect of suicide mortality.Results:The suicide mortality rate among people aged 10-24 years in China had been on the rise in recent years.The results of the APC model showed that the risk of suicide mortality among people aged 10-24 years increased with age.The period effect fluctuated over time, with an increasing trend since 2015, and the cohort effect showed a decreasing trend followed by an increase.Conclusion:The risk of suicide among young people in China has become more serious in recent years.More effective interventions are needed, to prevent further increases in the risk of suicide mortality of young people.

     

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